Northern Yemen: ‘A proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia?’…

YEMEN: SAADA PROVINCE 

From the desk of MD

ARMED FORCES in Yemen have entered their sixth campaign of fighting, since 2004, against the Houthi rebellion involving Zaydi Shias in the northern Yemen province of Saada, a region which borders Saudi Arabia. This latest round has been particularly intense, with the government launching air strikes against rebel held positions. The rebels have retaliated by firing Katyusha rockets in defence of holding territory.

It has become clear, though, that the conflict has a regional dimension to it. The government accuses Iran of backing the rebels and the Iranian media has alleged that Saudi Arabia is providing air support and cover for the Yemeni armed forces.

Over the past few months, skirmishes within the Northern Yemen province, have been sporadic and intermittent. Within the last few days those encounters have erupted into full-scale conflict after government troops, supported by heavy fighter-bombers, launched a major offensive against Houthi insurgents in the Saada region. A ceasefire, secured with Qatari mediation, came into being in the summer of 2008. However, it was not backed up by any subsequent political accord. This renewed campaign came after the president, Ali Abdullah Saleh stated:

… Continued violations by rebels and acts of sabotage prove their refusal to adhere to the peace option.

A fortnight of fierce fighting has resulted in scores, if not hundreds of dead, including many civilians, and the displacement of at least 17,000 families. Restricted access for media organisations and journalists into the area has hampered information gathering; communication into Saada has largely been cut off. Reports and claims from either side, though, seem to indicate that the Houthis made some early gains, taking four districts and overrunning a number of army positions, but security forces have since fought hard to retake several areas.

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Notably, the government claimed on August 16^th that it had killed a senior rebel leader, Hussein Kamza, in Amran province. This was followed-up with a visit to the front line by Mr. Saleh who, on coming to power in 1978, held the rank of Lieutenant-Colonel in the army. He now holds the prestigious position and rank of Field Marshal. However, a statement issued by the Houthis darkly warned that the group hadn’t even started the real war yet, and, as if to verify this claim, the rebels have continued firing Katyusha rockets at government held positions.

Earlier, the government had offered the opportunity for another ceasefire, on condition that the Houthi rebels withdraw from the frontline, remove their roadblocks and chicanes, release kidnapped foreign hostages and military captives, and by ceasing their interference in local political affairs. Rejecting the offer of a truce, the Houthis denied they were holding any foreign hostages and said the government was attempting to “mislead public opinion” as to the nature of the conflict and argued that “self-defence” is a “legitimate and sacred right”.

BOTH SIDES are resorting to the time-honoured ploy of alleging the other has been receiving clandestine and covert foreign assistance – Saudi Arabia unequivocal in its assertions that the Houthis are receiving arms from Iran; and, Iran propagating that Yemeni security forces are being supported with Saudi combat air support. Despite twists and arguments to the contrary, it does appear that the war in Saada is fast becoming a new arena in the wider regional power struggle involving the Saudis and Iranians, a contest that could become openly hostile as it seems likely to embroil Lebanon, Iraq and Iran’s own underhand nuclear programme.

Al-Alam, Iran’s Arabic-language broadcasting station, issued a statement refuting Yemeni government allegations that its broadcasts and reports are heavily skewed towards the Houthis. It says it has openly reported a recent trip made by Brigadier-General Ali al-Ansi, the head of Yemen’s national security agency, to Saudi Arabia. Al-Alam said that Mr. Ansi’s visit was made because of the Saada situation in an attempt to explore ways to strengthen military co-operation. In contrast, the official Saudi report made no mention in respect of these talks. Al-Alam reported that the Houthis blame Saudi Arabia for instigating and accelerating the current conflict, quoting Yahya al-Houthi, a spokesman for the rebel movement, as saying:

… Saudi Arabia is inciting the Yemeni president to strike at the Houthis in their region in a sectarian, doctrinal and immoral war.

Such remarks imply that the war is part of the wider struggle between Sunnis and Shias.

But, whatever the level of foreign involvement, given that five years of sporadic conflict has largely failed to resolve the government’s differences with the Zaydi insurgents, the current decision to once again revert to military measures would indicate a lack of ideas and initiatives in how those differences might be resolved. Yet, another offensive is hardly expected to achieve much, and may only add to Saada grievances, particularly among the civilian residents. Numerous accounts of civilian areas being hit have already been reported. There are particular concerns that the fighting may enter Saada town proper, which would expose a large number of both locals and refugees to the fighting. Houthi aims are often viewed as being both multiple and opaque, believed to stem from a general feeling of exclusion, based on the marginalisation (political, economic and religious) of the Zaydis since the end of the imamate in 1962.

Attribution:

• “War Footing”, August 20, 2009: Economist Intelligence Unit Viewswire

© Mark Dowe 2009: all rights protected

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