ANALYSIS
From the desk of MD
FOR THE PAST TWO MONTHS the world has watched as political turmoil has deepened in Iran after the contested presidential election results that returned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to a controversial second term in office.
The problems of the past few months, though, threaten to grip not just Iran but the wider Middle East and beyond. We know, for example, from intelligence estimates, that Iran is nearing the point when it can produce its first nuclear warhead and the means to deliver it. That moment seems likely to come under the leadership of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, and Mr. Ahmadinejad, who was inaugurated on 5 August for another four-year presidential term.
These are men who have demonstrated that they intend to hold on to power by whatever means necessary. They are also responsible for accelerating the nuclear programme and taking a hard-line position against the West, in spite of repeated peace overtures made this year by President Barack Obama.
Washington has given Tehran until September to respond to an offer of dialogue. The hope is that diplomacy can bring Iran back from the brink. The test will be whether it is prepared to abide by international safeguards. These would allow it to build a legitimate civiliannuclear programme, which it is doing with Russian help at Bushehr. But, it would mean stricter supervision of its more suspect facilities at Natanz and Arak.
If Iran chooses not to engage with Washington and rejects a negotiated deal on its nuclear facilities then America, Britain and France will press for harsher United Nations sanctions against Tehran. These will take effect only if Russia and China, who hold the right of veto at the UN Security Council, drop objections to tighter economic measures.
At this point in time the future looks bleak. If diplomatic efforts fail and Iran presses ahead with its ambitions, then the Middle East may be headed for the most serious conflict in decades. Israel’s policy is that it prefers a diplomatic settlement but that “all options remain on the table”. By that, it means using force to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, probably with air and missile strikes. Iran would be likely to respond and within days the region would threaten to become embroiled with what could escalate into a dirty and vicious war.
Many commentators doubt that Israel would be prepared to take such a dangerous step, particularly since experts believe that Iran has the ability to rebuild the key uranium enrichment site within two to three years.
Of real concern is how Iran is run in the coming months and years is not just a matter for Iranians. The situation in Iran and how events are played out are now, quite clearly, a global issue.
NUCLEAR PROGRAMME
WESTERN INTELLIGENCE SOURCES now believe that Iran has perfected the technology to create and detonate a nuclear warhead and is merely awaiting the word from its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to produce its first bomb.
Intelligence suggests that Iran completed a research programme to create weaponised uranium in the summer of 2003 and that it could feasibly manufacture and produce an “N-Bomb” within a year of an order from its Supreme Leader.
A US National Intelligence Estimate two years ago concluded that Iran had ended its nuclear arms research programme in 2003 because of the threat from the American invasion of Iraq. However, intelligence now suggests that Tehran halted the research because “it had achieved its aim” in finding a way of detonating a warhead that could be launched on its long-range Shehab-3 missiles.
Analysts now believe that, should Ayatollah Khamenei approve the building of a nuclear device, it would take six months to enrich enough uranium and another six months to assemble the warhead. The Iranian Defence Ministry has been running a covert nuclear research department for years, employing hundreds of scientists, researchers and metallurgists in a multi-billion dollar programme to develop nuclear technology alongside the civilian nuclear programme.
Intelligence suggests that, in 2003, Iran lacked sufficient supplies of fissile material, which is given as the main reason why the programme was slowed. Despite the “good results” with what Iran had procured with the materials it did have at its disposal, it seems highly likely that the leader himself decided back then to halt the programme.
SCIENTISTS in Iran have been trying to master a method of detonating a bomb known as the “multipoint initiative system” – wrapping highly enriched uranium in high explosives and then detonating it. Intelligence now says that the Iranian Defence Ministry had been using a secret internal agency called Amad, led by Mohsin Fakhri Zadeh, a physics professor and known senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Council.
The system operates by creating a series of explosive grooves on a metal hemisphere covering the uranium, which links explosive-filled holes opening onto a layer of high explosives enveloping the uranium. By detonating the explosives at either pole at the same time, the method ensures simultaneous impact around the sphere to achieve critical density.
If the Supreme Leader takes the decision to build a bomb, it is assessed that low grade uranium would require to be enriched at the Natanz plant, which would take six months, but dependent upon how many centrifuges are operating. However, it is not known whether this decision has yet been made but, conceivably, Iran could have created smaller, secret facilities, other than those at the high security bunker at Natanz to develop materials for its first bomb. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) only keep tabs on fissile material produced at monitored sites and not the number of centrifuges that Iran has built.
WASHINGTON has given the Iranian regime until next month to open talks on resolving the nuclear impasse, although hope of any constructive engagement have dimmed since the regime’s crackdown on pro-reformist protestors after June’s disputed presidential elections.
Adding weight to the argument that Israel may be considering a strike against Iran was given, last week, when Ehud Barak, Israel’s Defence Minister, reiterated that a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities was still an option, should talks fail. Israel estimates that a raid on Natanz and a surgical strike against the nuclear facility at Arak, in central Iran, would set Iran’s nuclear programme back by up to three years.
Israeli intelligence, working with other Western intelligence units, has said that Iran has “poured billions of dollars over three decades” into a two-pronged “master plan” to build a nuclear bomb. It says that Iran has enriched 1,010kg of uranium to 3.9 per cent, which would be sufficient for 30kg of highly enriched uranium at 95 per cent. About 30kg is needed to build one bomb.
BRITISH INTELLIGENCE is familiar with the secret information about Iran’s experiments. Although British agencies do not have their own “independent evidence” that Iran has successfully tested the explosive component of a nuclear warhead, the British Government will have no reason to doubt the legitimacy of the claims being made.
If Iran’s leader does decide to progress in building a bomb, he will have two choices. One would be to take the high-risk approach of kicking out the international inspectors and making a dash to complete Iran’s first bomb, as the country weathered international sanctions or possible air strikes in the ensuing crisis. The other would be to covertly develop the materials needed for an arsenal in secret desert facilities.
At the start of this month, during a series of high-level US visits to Israel, American officials outlined Washington’s plans to step up sanctions on Iran, should Tehran fail to agree on talks. Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, and General James Jones, the National Security Adviser, said that Iran had until the end of next month, when the UN General Assembly is to meet, to make a positive move towards engagement.
IF TEHRAN FAILS to respond, Washington aims to build a tough international coalition by imposing harsh and strict sanctions, which will primarily focus on petroleum products – an area where Iran is particularly vulnerable because it sends almost all of its crude abroad for refinement.
Many commentators and political analysts believe that the unrest of the summer will make Iran particularly vulnerable to sanctions. They would also hit the Revolutionary Guards Council, which finances its operations by running a huge conglomerate of international companies, rather than drawing finance from the state.
© Mark Dowe 2009: all rights protected
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Filed under: European Union, History, Iran, Israel, United Nations, World Affairs, non-proliferation treaty, nuclear weapons, terrorism, un security council | Tagged: arak, ayatollah ali khamenei, barack obama, bushehr, china, enriching uranium, intelligence briefing, Iran, iran's nuclear intentions, iranian elections 2009, Israel, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, natanz, russia, tehran, United Nations
